Development of Transitional Probability Matrix Model for Pavement Design.
ABSTRACT
A model of transitional probability matrix for Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design was developed with the aim of tarnishing the traditional method obtained from the judgment of an expert panel. The model was developed using fatigue and rutting as the critical factors in pavement failure. Model performance was assessed using the first-order reliability method (FORM) with the concept of a genetic search algorithm developed with Matrix Laboratory (MATLAB).
The proposed model allowed the distressed model to be model individually so that immediate measures for correcting deficiencies can readily be identified. The model formulation was followed by applying it to real data. The data consist of three-layered Hot-Mix asphalt (HMA) consisting of 100mm surfacing underlay by 200mm base course, 250mm sub-base which is purported to have a life span of 15 years.
The result indicates a decrease in system transitional probability of about 3% and 6% for light and heavy traffic considered respectively with age as against the constant homogeneous Markov-chain Matrix. The components probabilities also trend the same. Therefore, the assumption of a time-invariance matrix of transitional probability was disregarded. The performance of the original pavement structure (100mm) was compared to 125mm and 150mm surfacing respectively.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Cover page……..…………………………………………………………………………………..i
Title page……….…………………………………………………………………………………ii
Dedication………………………………………………………………………………………..iii
Declaration……………………………………………………………………………………….iv
Certification……….………………………………………………………………………………v
Acknowledgment………………………………………………………………………………..vi
Table of Content…….…..……………………………………………………………………….vii
List of Figures………………….………………………………………………………………….x
List of Tables……………………………………………………………………………………..xi
Symbols/Abbreviation……………………………………………………………………………xii
Abstract……………………..……………………………………………………………………xiv
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION…………………….………………………………………1
1.1 General Overview…………….……………………………………….…………………….…..1
1.2 Statement of the Research Problem..…………………………………………………….…….3
1.3 Justification of the Research…………………………..……………………………………….3
1.4 Aim and Objectives…………………………………………………………………………….4
1.4.1 Aim……………………………………………………………………………………….4
1.4.2 Objectives……….………………………………………………………………………….4
1.5 Scope of the Study….………………………………………………………………………….4
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW..………….……………………………………….6
2.1 Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design……………….…………….…………………….……6
2.2 Factors Affecting Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design..…….……………………………7
2.2.1 Traffic Loading…………….……………………………..………………………….7
2.2.2 Material characteristics…….……………………………..………………………….8
2.2.3 Climatic condition and seasonal variation of material properties……….………….8
2.3 Existing Models for Pavement Performance………………..…….……………………………9
2.4 Concept of Structural Reliability…………………………….…….………………………….16
2.5Different Method of Structural Reliability…………………..…….………………………….18
2.5.1 Monte Carlo simulation method…………………………..…………………………18
2.5.2 First and second-order reliability method………..………..…………………………19
2.5.3 Probability transformation method………………………..…………………………21
2.6 Structural Reliability using Genetic Algorithm……………..…….………………………….21
CHAPTER THREE: MATERIALS AND METHODS…………………………………………25
3.1Introduction……………………………………………………………………………………25
3.2 Model Input……………………………………………………………………………………25
3.2.1 Traffic………………………………………………………………………………25
3.2.2 Material characterization……………………………………………………………27
3.3Mechanistic Pavement-Performance Model……..……………………………………………28
3.3.1 Fatigue cracking………………..………………………..…………………………29
3.3.2 Rutting……………………….…………………………..…………………………29
3.4 Stochastic Framework……………………..……..……………………………………………30
3.4.1 Individual and system distress.…………………………..…………………………30
3.5 Evaluation of the Limit State Function…….………………..…….………………………….31
3.6 GA Based First Order Reliability Analysis Formulation…….…….………………………….33
3.7 System Reliability Analysis Formulation….………………..…….………………………….37
3.8 Implementation of the Reliability Analysis..………………..…….………………………….38
3.8.1 Program flowchart………………………………………..…………………………38
3.8.2 Program documentation…………………………………..…………………………39
3.9 Illustration………………………………….………………..…….………………………….41
CHAPTER FOUR: ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION OF RESULTS…………………………43
4.1 Introduction…………………………………………………..…….………………………….43
4.2 Discussion of Result..………………………………………..…….………………………….43
4.2.1 Cumulative damage analysis……………………………..…………………………43
4.2.2 Individual (Component) transitional probability analysis.…………………………46
4.2.3 Combine (System) transitional probability analysis.………………………………46
4.2.4 Effect of increasing pavement thickness.………………..…………………………48
4.2.5 Effect of variation of coefficient of variation..…………..…………………………49
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY, CONCLUSION, AND RECOMMENDATION..……………50
5.1 Summary……………………………………………………..…….………………………….50
5.2 Conclusion.…………………………………………………..…….………………………….50
5.3 Recommendation……………………………………………..…….………………………….51
INTRODUCTION
The Increasing demand for road transport in Nigeria and the huge government investments on roads have generated the need to encourage road maintenance and sustainability. Effective road maintenance program reduces vehicle operating costs, extends the life of pavements, and results in significant savings on rehabilitation and reconstruction (Abdulkarim, 2003). With the corresponding increase in traffic volumes on our roads, characterized by varying composition and axle loads, environmental changes, and material characterization, road deterioration and failure are experienced (Adeoti, 2000).
This ugly development started affecting service delivery to our pavements. Our road transportation system began to suffer losses due to high operating costs leading to some being grounded. The need to place emphasis on road maintenance started to manifest (Abdulkarim, 2003). Unfortunately, the financial and technical requirements for effective maintenance, rehabilitation, and reconstruction became so staggering that the rate of maintenance could not be matched with the deterioration. This development has necessitated many highway agencies to develop a pavement management system (Adeoti, 2000).
A pavement management system is considered as a programming tool that collects and monitors information on current pavement, forecasts future conditions, and evaluates and prioritizes alternative reconstruction, rehabilitation, and maintenance strategies to achieve a steady state of system preservation at a predetermined level of performance (Prozzi and Madanat, 2000). Effective implementation and utilization of pavement management systems in generating and evaluating various alternative strategies based on engineering and economic principles are largely dependent on the ability to predict the future condition of the pavement.
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